Will Hong Joon-pyo’s Call for a New Conservative Party Reshape South Korea’s Political Landscape?

Translation result.

Former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo issued a forceful critique of the People Power Party, saying that \”a renewed traditional conservatism must emerge.\” Analysts read his remarks as signaling a possible reshaping of the conservative camp and the potential formation of a new party.

On the 17th, Hong made the comment while exchanging messages with a supporter on his online platform, Youth’s Dream. The supporter told him that \”after this local election, the People Power Party will effectively disband,\” and asked Hong to lead the founding of a new conservative party ahead of the next parliamentary and presidential elections.

Hong responded, \”Groups that have lost their conservative identity should disappear now,\” delivering a bluntly negative assessment of the current People Power Party.

He also explained why he believes the party has lost its reason to exist. Hong said the party has degenerated into a group that pursues private interests instead of the national interest, calling it not the People Power Party but \”a burden on the people.\” He accused the party of prioritizing internal power struggles and vested interests over the needs of the country and its citizens.

He reiterated that \”a renewed traditional conservatism must emerge,\” indicating a belief that a different type of conservative political force is needed. Political observers say the comment suggests he may be considering a new conservative party.

Hong has recently maintained a consistently critical stance toward the People Power Party’s leadership and strategic direction. He has repeatedly argued that the party has lost its ability to sustain itself by relying too heavily on importing outside figures rather than cultivating presidential candidates internally.

He has long warned that a party that cannot develop its own leaders has no future, and he contends that this structural weakness has eroded the conservative camp’s competitiveness. He has also argued that these dynamics have contributed to ceding power to the progressive bloc.

Hong is considered a prominent hardline conservative. A former prosecutor, he has served as a member of the National Assembly, governor of South Gyeongsang Province, leader of the Liberty Korea Party, and mayor of Daegu, and he has twice run for president. Observers note he has preserved an independent political identity by keeping distance from the party mainstream.

Political analysts are watching whether Hong’s remarks will do more than express frustration and could feed into discussions about reorganizing the conservative camp. They caution, however, that it is still unclear whether his statements will lead to a new party or serve primarily as leverage within the conservative ranks.

Meanwhile, opinion polls increasingly show the Democratic Party holding a nationwide advantage in the parliamentary by-elections being held alongside the June 3 local elections.

Aggregating polls released so far, the Democratic Party leads in 10 of the 14 by-election districts, while the People Power Party holds an edge in only two. The remaining two districts are either closely contested or lack published polls.

In Busan’s Buk-gap district, Democratic candidate Ha Jung-woo polled 39%, leading independent candidate Han Dong-hoon at 29% by 10 percentage points. People Power Party candidate Park Min-sik stood at 21%, competing with Han within the margin of error. Korea Gallup conducted the survey for News1 via CATI on May 12–13 among 508 residents aged 18 and older in Busan Buk-gap. The response rate was 11.3%, and the margin of error was ±4.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Political analysts say the low likelihood of conservative unification has created a favorable environment for the Democratic Party.

In Gyeonggi’s Hanam-gap district, Lee Kwang-jae polled 47%, leading Lee Yong at 33% by 14 percentage points. The by-election was triggered by Democratic Gyeonggi gubernatorial candidate Chu Mi-ae’s resignation from her parliamentary seat. In the 22nd general election, Chu defeated Lee Yong by about 1,100 votes. Observers say voter sentiment in the new town area of Gamildong decided that race.

Gyeonggi Pyeongtaek-eul has become a three-way contest. Democratic candidate Kim Yong-nam polled 29%, Jo Guk of the Jo Guk Innovation Party had 24%, and People Power candidate Yoo Ui-dong trailed at 20%. At one point, a unification between the Democratic Party and the Jo Guk Innovation Party was discussed, but both sides now plan to run their own campaigns.

In Incheon Yeonsu-gap, Democratic candidate Song Young-gil polled 48.7%, well ahead of Park Jong-jin at 33.9%. Incheon Gyeyang-eul also shows a strong Democratic lead: Kim Nam-jun polled 58.7% versus Shim Wang-seop’s 19.4%. Gyeyang-eul carries symbolic weight as the former constituency of President Lee Jae-myung.

In Gyeonggi Ansan-gap, Kim Nam-guk led with 47.1% to Kim Seok-hoon’s 23.1%. In South Chungcheong’s Asan-eul, Jeon Eun-su recorded 53.4%, comfortably ahead of Kim Min-kyung’s 29.2%.

Jeju Seogwipo also showed a Democratic edge: Kim Seong-beom polled 47% while Go Ki-chul had 24%. North Jeolla’s Gunsan·Gimje·Buan-gap and Gunsan-gap·eul, along with Gwangju Gwangsan-eul, remain traditional Democratic strongholds.

By contrast, the People Power Party holds advantages mainly in Daegu Dalseong County and Ulsan Nam-gap. In Daegu Dalseong County, Lee Jin-suk received 39%, ahead of Park Hyung-ryong at 30%.

In Ulsan Nam-gap, Kim Tae-gyu polled 46.7%, leading Jeon Tae-jin at 31.0% by more than 15 percentage points. The district also draws attention as the former constituency of Kim Sang-wook, who switched from the People Power Party to the Democratic Party after the martial law incident. Nonetheless, the area is traditionally conservative.

In South Chungcheong’s Gongju·Buyeo·Cheongyang, candidate nominations were only recently finalized, so no polls gauging the race have been released yet. The district is a classic swing area: parties aligned with the People Power Party won in the 20th and 21st general elections, while the Democratic Party won in the 22nd.

Observers view these by-elections as a test not only for seat counts but also for voter sentiment ahead of the local elections and the next general election. If the Democratic Party sustains its lead in the Seoul metropolitan area and the Chungcheong region, it could strengthen its control over the political agenda. The People Power Party, meanwhile, faces the twin challenges of defending its Yeongnam base and overcoming its disadvantage in the Seoul metro area.

For detailed information about the polls, visit the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.