Seoul Mayoral Race: Can 정원오 Outpace 오세훈 by 14.2%?

A recent public opinion poll conducted ahead of the June 3 local elections reveals that Jeong Won-oh, the Democratic Party’s mayor of Seongdong District, holds a substantial 14.2 percentage point lead over Oh Se-hoon, the incumbent Seoul mayor from the People Power Party.

According to a survey conducted by polling firm JoWon C&I for Straight News on February 7-8, sampling 806 Seoul residents aged 18 and older, Jeong secured 47.5% support compared to Oh’s 33.3% in a hypothetical matchup.

This marks a widening gap from the previous head-to-head poll on January 24-25, where Jeong led with 50.5% to Oh’s 40.3%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points.

In a multi-candidate scenario, Jeong led with 28.4%, followed by Oh at 20.2%, Na Kyung-won of the People Power Party at 13.9%, Park Joo-min of the Democratic Party at 9.3%, former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon at 6.7%, Democratic Party member Seo Young-kyo at 5.1%, former member Jeon Hyun-hee at 3.0%, member Park Hong-geun at 1.3%, and member Kim Young-bae at 0.8%.

Jeong maintained his lead in most districts, with a neck-and-neck race in the traditionally conservative areas of Seocho, Gangnam, Songpa, and Gangdong, where Jeong garnered 25.4% to Oh’s 25.3%.

Party support figures showed the Democratic Party leading with 48.1% against the People Power Party’s 31.6%, a 16.5 percentage point advantage. The Reform Party received 2.8% support, followed by the Cho Kuk Innovation Party at 2.0%, and the Progressive Party at 0.9%. Other parties accounted for 1.7%, while 12.9% of respondents were undecided or expressed no party preference.

President Lee Jae-myung’s performance received a positive evaluation from 58.5% of Seoul residents, with only 35.9% expressing disapproval. Even in the four Gangnam districts, known for their conservative leanings, the approval rating stood at 54.1% compared to 40.1% disapproval.

Regarding the June local elections, 49.5% of respondents believed that supporting the ruling party was necessary to facilitate effective governance, while 39.2% felt that empowering the opposition was crucial to maintain checks and balances.

This survey employed an Automated Response System (ARS) method, using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers with random sampling proportional to gender, age, and region. The margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For additional details, please consult the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.