Germany’s New Military Strategy: Is Russia the Biggest Threat to Europe in 2026?

The German government has drafted its first comprehensive military strategy that names Russia as the primary threat to Germany and European security.

On April 22 (local time), the Defense Ministry released portions of the document, saying, “Russia is preparing the prerequisites for military attacks against NATO countries and is already conducting hybrid operations against Germany and other allies,” and classifying Moscow as a “comprehensive, wide-ranging state military-strategic threat.”

The paper assesses that Russia is operating below the threshold of open war, mobilizing all elements of state power and using long-range strike capabilities to threaten Europe from multiple directions. It adds that Moscow views the West as hostile, interprets NATO membership bids as encirclement, and ultimately seeks to weaken the alliance and reshape the European security order.

For the foreseeable future, the strategy centers on deterring and countering Russia. The ministry said, “Russia poses the most serious and direct threat to Germany, Europe, and transatlantic security,” stressing that Germany — Europe’s largest economy and the largest non-nuclear NATO ally — carries a heavy burden of responsibility.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia is expanding its forces to prepare for potential armed conflict with NATO and increasingly treats the use of force as a legitimate instrument for advancing national interests.

Berlin is moving quickly to strengthen its armed forces. The plan aims to build the Bundeswehr into Europe’s most capable conventional force by 2039, fielding roughly 260,000 active troops and 200,000 reservists — about 460,000 personnel in total — and acquiring long-range precision-strike capabilities.

This is the first time since the Bundeswehr was established in 1955 that Germany has produced a military strategy combining a formal security assessment with contingency plans for troop deployment. The shift marks a significant change for a country that has long been cautious about military power since World War II.

German planners are even considering a scenario in which Russia, following its campaign in Ukraine, could move against a NATO member around 2029. In response, lawmakers amended the Basic Law last year to grant greater flexibility in handling defense budgets and revised military service statutes so Parliament can authorize the reintroduction of conscription if troop shortages or a national emergency arise.

The moves have provoked debate at home. Critics say the government is using an altered security landscape as a pretext for remilitarization.

Ulrich Toden warned, “Eighty-one years after World War II, Germany is pursuing military leadership in Europe and moving toward becoming a military great power. That is entirely unnecessary.”