Japan is moving decisively toward becoming a country with the capacity to wage war after the government moved to, in principle, allow exports of lethal weapons that have been banned since 1976. The policy shift comes 12 years after then–Prime Minister Shinzo Abe first signaled a willingness to loosen export controls in 2014. Analysts say the administration of Sanae Takaichi, who won a landslide in the last general election, is likely to accelerate a rightward policy trajectory.
On April 21, the government revised the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and related implementing guidelines at a Cabinet meeting and a National Security Council session. Since 1976, Tokyo had effectively banned arms exports by treating equipment tied to weapons manufacture the same as weapons themselves. That posture was rooted in Article 9 of the constitution—the so‑called “peace constitution”—which renounces war and the use of force.
Those constraints were partially relaxed in 2014, when Abe cleared the way for conditional exports and limited allowable defense equipment to five categories: rescue, transport, security, surveillance and mine‑clearance. Exports of finished weapons with lethal capability remained broadly prohibited. By removing that remaining barrier now, the Takaichi government has intensified its push to normalize Japan’s defense industry role.
Tokyo says it will, as a rule, not export weapons to countries that are parties to active armed conflicts. But it also carved out an exception: under special circumstances tied to security needs, the National Security Council’s “four ministers” meeting—the prime minister, foreign minister, defense minister and chief cabinet secretary—can authorize exports. Critics warn that leaves room for discretionary, potentially politicized decisions.
Japan’s neighbors are likely to view the policy shift with concern. Tokyo has increased military activity around the Taiwan Strait, raising tensions with Beijing. In that context, the Nikkei argued that as China expands its missile and carrier forces and North Korea continues missile development, Japan needs to deepen cooperation with allies such as the United States and Australia—an argument used to justify the move toward permitting lethal‑weapon exports.
Constitutional revision appears to be the next step. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to propose amendments to explicitly recognize the Self‑Defense Forces, add an emergency clause, address merged electoral districts and strengthen education policy. Enshrining the SDF in the constitution would lower the political barrier to Japan functioning as a war‑capable state. Plans are already underway to establish a National Intelligence Agency, a Japanese counterpart to the CIA, slated for July.
Tokyo also announced what would be its first postwar export of a warship. On April 18, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi signed a memorandum of understanding with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles to jointly develop an upgraded version of the Maritime Self‑Defense Force’s Mogami‑class escort ship. Japan will build a total of 11 escort ships and officials say Tokyo is exploring potential sales to partners including New Zealand, the Philippines and Indonesia.
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